Democrats are talking about a blowout in the 2020 election, but Joe Biden is actually performing worse in the polls than Hillary Clinton did at this point in 2016.
The hard numbers: National Review’s David Harsanyi showed on Tuesday that Biden leads President Donald Trump in the polls by less than Clinton did in five of the six top battleground states.
Here are the same RealClearPolitics poll averages for each state updated for Oct. 21 — in 2016 versus 2020.
Michigan: Clinton led by 12 points. Biden leads by 7.2.
Wisconsin: Clinton led by 6.5 points. Biden leads by 6.3.
Florida: Clinton led by 4.3 points. Biden leads by 1.6.
North Carolina: Clinton led by 2.8 points. Biden leads by 2.3.
The exception is Arizona, where Biden is up by 3.1 points, compared to Clinton’s 1.5-point advantage 13 days before her surprise loss in 2016.
- Georgia is also said to be in play for Democrats for the first time in decades.
Overall, the polls give Biden a 4-point edge over Biden — down from Clinton’s 4.1 points four years ago — in the states expected to determine the election.
The experts claim 2020 is different: They’ve tweaked their methods, and Biden’s national lead is bigger, 8.5 versus 5.6 points, and steadier than Clinton’s was.
- Plus, they say, Biden is less disliked than Clinton was, and more Americans are voting early than ever before.
On the other hand, though, Trump’s supporters are much more enthusiastic than Biden’s are, and the mass adoption of voting by mail during the pandemic is a major wildcard.
As Harsanyi put it: “I am completely willing to believe that Biden will win handily. It could well start breaking his way in the polls next week for all I know. But I also find it inexplicable that so many Democrats seem to believe 2020 is in the bag.”
