An endorsement by former President Donald Trump helps GOP primary candidates win votes, but there’s an important caveat, according to a recent study.
SO WHAT
Trump appears most powerful when he works within the system.
THE NUMBERS
The Echelon Insights analysis from March, which presented likely primary voters with fictional candidates, found that Republicans are 3 percentage points more likely to vote for a Trump-endorsed candidate.
The advantage soars to 29% when candidates are also backed by local GOP leaders, per the study — by far the biggest endorsement effect recorded by the researchers.
- By comparison, an endorsement by President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris is half as helpful for Democratic primary candidates, and media darlings Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y. are a net liability.
- IDENTITY POLITICS: Race and gender are important variables, with white men taking a hit among Democrats (-12%) and, to a lesser extent, Republicans (2%).
THE UPSHOT
On one hand, Echelon Insights threw some cold water on the widespread obsession with Trump’s endorsements.
- Not just GOP candidates, but also Republican voters, the news media and Trump himself have treated the former president’s primary picks like massive game-changers.
- But a 3-point boost is more like home court advantage.
On the other hand, the study’s findings were a reminder that endorsements probably aren’t the best way to measure Trump’s star power.
- Trump has remade the GOP in his image, and Republican voters have remained overwhelmingly loyal to him.
- According to a Morning Consult/Politico survey released earlier this month, 53% of GOP voters said they would vote for him as their party’s 2024 presidential nominee.
- Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the runner-up, got 16% support.
