Here’s How Much Trump’s Endorsement Is Worth


An endorsement by former President Donald Trump helps GOP primary candidates win votes, but there’s an important caveat, according to a recent study.


Trump appears most powerful when he works within the system.


The Echelon Insights analysis from March, which presented likely primary voters with fictional candidates, found that Republicans are 3 percentage points more likely to vote for a Trump-endorsed candidate.

The advantage soars to 29% when candidates are also backed by local GOP leaders, per the study — by far the biggest endorsement effect recorded by the researchers.

  • By comparison, an endorsement by President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris is half as helpful for Democratic primary candidates, and media darlings Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y. are a net liability.
  • IDENTITY POLITICS: Race and gender are important variables, with white men taking a hit among Democrats (-12%) and, to a lesser extent, Republicans (2%).


On one hand, Echelon Insights threw some cold water on the widespread obsession with Trump’s endorsements.

On the other hand, the study’s findings were a reminder that endorsements probably aren’t the best way to measure Trump’s star power.

  • Trump has remade the GOP in his image, and Republican voters have remained overwhelmingly loyal to him.
  • According to a Morning Consult/Politico survey released earlier this month, 53% of GOP voters said they would vote for him as their party’s 2024 presidential nominee.
  • Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the runner-up, got 16% support.
By We'll Do It Live