Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has for the first time moved ahead of former President Donald Trump as the odds-on favorite to be the 2024 GOP presidential nominee, according to PredictIt.
The prediction: PredictIt, a popular political predictions market, on Wednesday showed DeSantis finally surpassing his “MAGA” mentor in the esteem of the platform’s traders.
By Thursday, DeSantis’ stock rose to $0.24 — up from $0.19 at the start of April — amid his public smackdown of CBS’ “60 Minutes.”
- A bet on Trump got 2 cents cheaper over the same period, and now costs $0.22.
(PredictIt has a Democrat favored to win the general election, $0.55 to $0.46 and Vice President Kamala Harris as the party’s most likely nominee.)
What about the experts?: Recent polling of Republican voters has given Trump a dominant lead over other potential 2024 candidates, with DeSantis coming in a distant second or third.
- Sixty percent of Republicans last month told Echelon Insights they would “definitely” or “probably” back Trump to be president, and a plurality, 17%, named as DeSantis as their backup.
- Trump also easily bested runner-up DeSantis among activists at last month’s Conservative Political Action Conference, winning the 2024 straw poll 55% to 22%.
However, 2024 is a long way off, and research has found that prediction markets, while imperfect, are generally better forecasters than polls.
Meantime: DeSantis has continued to boost his national standing by successfully defying his detractors at “60 Minutes” and elsewhere in the media.
- Top pundits from both the conservative establishment and the populist right have seen enough to in recent days hail DeSantis as a new-and-improved Trump.
- “DeSantis is Trump but more competent, with similar or superior hand gestures, and doesn’t come with the baggage of Javanka,” Pedro Gonzalez, a senior writer at American Greatness, tweeted on Tuesday.
Neither DeSantis nor Trump have confirmed they will run for president.
