Democrats who were counting on the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade to catalyze their base in this year’s midterm elections appear to have badly miscalculated, according to a new poll.
SO WHAT
Are liberals too demoralized to vote?
THE NUMBERS
The Washington Post-Schar School poll, released Friday, found that Americans who see the end of Roe as a “major loss of rights for women” are much less committed to voting in the midterms than are those who don’t think women are worse off.
Most Americans (65%) think the Supreme Court ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization was bad for women, but the minority (35%) who disagree are 18 points more likely to be “absolutely certain” they’ll cast a ballot in November, per the poll.
- Even among women under 40, the demographic most impacted by abortion restrictions, only 1 in 3 say they’ll definitely vote.
THE BLACK PILL
“This fall, Roe is on the ballot,” President Biden said in a June 24 White House speech just hours after the Dobbs decision was released.
- But neither Biden’s exhortations nor the hopes of Democratic Party strategists have panned out so far.
- “Is the discontent with Democratic Party leadership and policies generally so deep that those most affected by the court decision … still plan to sit out this election?” Mark Rozell, a political scientist at George Mason University, commented on the poll to the Post. “I struggle to wrap my head around this disconnect.”
A number of previous polls have also indicated that Dobbs isn’t moving the electoral needle much ahead of the midterms.
- A USA Today/Suffolk poll in June found 66% of voters name the economy as the most important election, compared to just 15% who say abortion.
