With midterm elections 102 days away, the Republican lead in the battle to recapture control of Congress has been cut in half in only a week, according to a new poll.
THE NUMBERS
The GOP’s lead in the Generic Congressional Ballot is down to five points, with 46% of respondents favoring the GOP compared to 41% for Democrats, per a Rasmussen Reports poll released Friday.
Last week, Democrats trailed Republicans by 10 points, 49% to 39%, in Rasmussen’s Generic Congressional Ballot survey.
- Rasmussen’s findings come on the heels of four national polls in the past week alone showing Democrats beating out Republicans for control of Congress.
CONNECTING THE DOTS
The Cook Political Report’s Amy Walter said in a recent analysis that “Over the last couple of weeks, there’s been a shift in opinion among many political professionals about Democrats’ chances in the midterm campaign.”
- “The explanation for this seeming disconnect between the president’s weak approval ratings and stronger showings for Democratic House and Senate candidates seem to be driven by a few factors: a post-Dobbs energizing of the Democratic base, weak and/or flawed GOP senate candidates, and the January 6th hearings. In other words, the media focus has increasingly been centered on issues that are harmful for the GOP,” Walter wrote.
- “Yet, there’s nothing new about a late summer ‘reassessment’ of midterm assumptions. In fact, like clockwork, the out-party right about now starts to fret that their advantage is slipping, while the in-party sees green shoots springing from a barren landscape.”
THE TWEET THAT SUMS IT ALL UP
A tweet last week by Washington Examiner senior political correspondent David Drucker drove Walter’s point home:
Midterm cycles since ‘06 have certain rhythm: 1) Maybe POTUS’ party’ll avoid losses. 2) Things look good for out party. 3) Things look REALLY good for out party. 4) Hold on, maybe POTUS’ party won’t lose as many seats as thought. 5) Could POTUS’ party avoid wipeout? 6) WIPEOUT.
— David M. Drucker (@DavidMDrucker) July 23, 2022
